Report Gives Basis For Area Traffic Projections

By Tammy Gray-Searles
   A draft of the Navajo County central area transportation study revealed that calculations used to determine future traffic flow were based on south county growth, census data and a master development plan by Aztec Land and Cattle Company.
   Among the findings of the study:
   * “A master plan for 226,000 acres is being developed south of I-40 and north of State Route 277 within the study area.”
   * “The central Navajo County study area is projected to grow by more than 13,400 households and 5,200 jobs by (the) year 2030. Much of this growth is attributed to the 226,000-acre development plan previously identified. This does not include growth for southern Navajo County or growth anticipated after 2030.”
   * “The growth forecasted for southern Navajo County coupled with the growth in central Navajo County will degrade mobility and safety within Holbrook along Navajo Blvd., particularly between the Little Colorado River and I-40.”
   * “State Route 77 is the primary direct route for southern Navajo County residents to access Interstate 40.”
   To determine traffic counts based on growth, the study assumed that each household, including new households proposed by Aztec, would generate five separate round-trips daily.
   The number of households in the study area and southern Navajo County is expected to increase by 53.8 percent between 2006 and 2015, according to the study, by 100.8 percent between 2006 and 2020, and by 274.6 percent between 2006 and 2030. The report notes that significant growth in the southern part of the county will create a need for a fast route to and from Interstate 40.
   “The regional household and employment forecasts were included to provide valuable insight to the regional travel demand needs primarily due to extensive growth in southern Navajo County,” the draft report notes. “The changing economy of the study area is reflected in the expectation that the industrial and retail sectors will outperform the service sector. The hotel sector is not expected to change significantly between 2006 and 2030.”
   According to the report, industrial employment will increase by 44.9 percent by 2015, service employment by 24.2 percent and retail employment by 23.2 percent for all of Navajo County south of the reservation line.
   Growth expectations were also broken down by geographic area, with the report noting, “Southern Navajo County was also included in this summary, as it greatly impacts the City of Holbrook due to SR 77 access to I-40.” It also noted that growth area estimates were centered on the towns, but not limited to municipal boundaries.
   For Holbrook, the study estimates that the number of households will grow from 1,391 in 2006 to 1,517 by 2015, a 9.1 percent increase. By 2020, a total of 1,593 households are predicted, and 1,759 by 2030, for a total growth of 26.5 percent between 2006 and 2030.
   Growth in the Joseph City area was estimated at about the same rate as Holbrook, with 10.5 percent growth between 2006 and 2015, or an increase from 237 households to 262, and total growth of 30.4 percent between 2006 and 2030, or an increase to 309 households.
   Employment increases were also predicted for Holbrook and Joseph City, with Holbrook expected to see a 41.4 percent increase in employment opportunities by 2030, and Joseph City, a 33.9 percent increase.
   As for Winslow, the draft report notes that the city “is projected to experience slightly more household growth than Holbrook and Joseph City. However, unlike the other two communities, projected employment growth is very low. The community is expected to see only slight increases in the employment sectors evaluated. The city identified several other potential developments, however, those developments were treated as overly optimistic for this elevation. The city, by using this model, has the ability to test different land use assumptions if and when development is proposed.”
   According to the study, Winslow will experience a 46.1 percent growth in the number of households between 2006 and 2030, with the total number of households increasing from 2,776 to 4,055. Employment is expected to increase by only 10.4 percent over that same time period.
   Unincorporated areas of Navajo County within the study area, not including Heber-Overgaard, are listed within the study as anticipating major growth, based mostly on Aztec’s development plans. The number of households in unincorporated areas is expected to jump from 2,742 in 2006 to 3,739 in 2015, or a 36.3 percent increase. By 2020, the total is estimated at 5,032 for 47.1 percent growth, and by 2030 the number of predicted households is 14,763, for a growth rate of 354.9 percent between 2006 and 2030.
   The draft report notes, “Aztec Land and Cattle Company provided year 2030 development assumptions based on a longer term development build-out. Aztec Land and Cattle Company is currently working through the entitlement process for approximately 220,000 developable acres within the study area.”
   More moderate growth is predicted for the Heber-Overgaard area, with a 4.1 percent increase in the number of households by 2015, and a 23.6 percent increase by 2030.
   If the anticipated growth does occur, the draft report indicates that several routes, including State Routes 77 and 377 will “experience capacity problems.” The study also points out that currently most of the traffic on those routes is heavy truck traffic. Anticipated traffic counts in the study also include some statewide assumptions based on travel patterns outside of the study area, such as vehicles traveling to and from Phoenix.
   The study makes a number of recommendations, including several that indicate additional detailed studies should be conducted on State Routes 77, 377 and 277.
   For the Holbrook area, short-term recommendations include better traffic signal timing, improving “walkability” along Navajo Blvd., and “examine the potential of developing the abandoned and recently refurbished Amtrak station (historic train depot) into a multi-modal center that can facilitate regional travel for the White Mountain connector transit service, Greyhound, Amtrak and other services.”
   Long-term recommendations for the Holbrook area include restricting left turns on Navajo Blvd. between the railroad crossing and Florida Street and completing “a detailed alternative route evaluation within the City of Holbrook for both east and west side crossings of the BNSF railroad and the Little Colorado River.”
   The report notes, however, that long-term plans should be put into place “when traffic volume on Navajo Blvd. reaches 13,500 vehicles per day, additional traffic signal warrants are met, or train activity increases to more than 100 trains per day at the BNSF crossing.”
   The study is still in draft form, and a final report, along with final recommendations, is expected to be complete near the end of March.